Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A
ISSN 1673-565X(Print), 1862-1775(Online), Monthly

2007   Vol. 8   No. 6   p. 921~925

Bayesian mapping of neural tube defects prevalence in Heshun County, Shanxi Province, China during 1998~2001

CHI Wen-xue^†1, WANG Jin-feng^†‡2, LI Xin-hu², ZHENG Xiao-ying³, LIAO Yi-lan²

(¹China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China)
(²Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)
(³Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)
^‡ Corresponding Author
^†E-mail: chiwx@126.com; wangjf@lreis.ac.cn
Received Aug. 10, 2006 revision accepted Nov. 14, 2006

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the prevalence rates of neural tube defects (NTDs) in Heshun County, Shanxi Province, China by Bayesian smoothing technique. Methods: A total of 80 infants in the study area who were diagnosed with NTDs were analyzed. Two mapping techniques were then used. Firstly, the GIS software ArcGIS was used to map the crude prevalence rates. Secondly, the data were smoothed by the method of empirical Bayes estimation. Results: The classical statistical approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. The maps produced by the Bayesian technique indicate the tendency of villages in the southeastern region to produce higher prevalence or risk values. Conclusions: The Bayesian smoothing technique addresses the issue of heterogeneity in the population at risk and it is therefore recommended for use in explorative mapping of birth defects. This approach provides procedures to identify spatial health risk levels and assists in generating hypothesis that will be investigated in further detail.

Key words: Birth defects, Neural tube defects (NTDs), Disease map, Spatial analysis, Bayesian smoothing, China
doi:10.1631/jzus.2007.A0921             CLC number: TP317; R18

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