Dialogue@ZJU: With Joshua Kobb about post COVID-19

[Message from the editor：As the higher education reels from the impact of global pandemic, here's what experts say is likely to play out in the aftermath. Joshua Kobb，deputy Dean of Zhejiang University International Business School shared his thougts about the new normal higher education in Post-CV.]

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routines, businesses and lives around the world at a speed and scope that few were willing to imagine. As of this writing, we are nearing 1,000,000 cases recorded globally with no immediate sign of containment. Estimates for the impact of the virus on the US economy currently forecast unemployment of up to 20%, a drop in GDP of 6% in the first quarter and 24% in the second quarter of 2020.Shock waves will rock the global economy in the foreseeable future.

Every day we are making decisions about family and business that are difficult and unfamiliar.We know that the health situation will evolve, though the timeline is uncertain today.And we know that we will come back to some sense of normalcy. However, when the smoke clears, what will the landscape look like for us all, and what are the implications for higher education?

Looking more specifically at higher education, I would speculate that there is nothing that is totally unforeseen in the future. Our centuries-old industry will continue to focus on research and students will continue to seek the credibility and credentials associated with the piece of parchment  at the end of the path. While there will certainly be a shake-up, I see a continuation and acceleration of trends rather than a significant restructuring of the industry. Most of these trends we saw coming.

The trend towards online learning has been clear over the last several years, but it will rapidly expand across all subject areas and program types. The speed and scale at which universities moved online in reaction to the crisis was impressive and shows that universities can adapt to face unforeseen situations. Advances in EdTech will improve the learner experience, creating highly engaging interactions which create deeper social connections.Schools who can rapidly deploy digital solutions will have an advantage. Online learning will be a risk-mitigating factor, a means to ensure learning continuity and a response to the new context of reduced mobility and economic constriction. As adoption accelerates, digital learning technologies will advance and continue to improve the learning experience to create a virtuous cycle.

Lower enrollment, the loss of international tuition revenue, decrease in fundraising and scaling back of corporate learning will affect most institutions. With the economic downturn, shrinking endowment returns will impact operating budgets, just as the costs of litigation (did you really need to kick me out of the dorms?) will increase. Loss of revenue will not be offset by higher tuition—in fact, it will be the opposite as schools will need to increase scholarship awards and provide significant tuition reductions to maintain enrollment numbers. Some estimates (Chronicle of Higher Education) see 20% of institutions closing in the US, so expect an acceleration of consolidation in the industry.

Concern over employability have pushed universities to focus on hard skills, closing some departments deemed to be less practical and adding tech skills to curricula. Students will demand more of this as employability and career progression become key elements in the choice of schools. Career services will become strategic value drivers, increasing their corporate partnerships, experimenting with new business models and increasing their investment in tech tools and resources. Private-academic learning partnerships will increase as job-relevant content integrates curricula.

In the new normal we have become even more connected via technology and heavily reliant on technology and learning applications. Learning has moved online, and new social engagement tools have been integrated into the learning experience. Learning management has also advanced through technology, with tools that are integrated into programs. Learners and corporate clients expect connectivity and the ability to learn and manage the learning experience virtually. Artificial intelligence will help customize the learning experience and increase impact. Blockchain will improve assessment and facilitate credential evaluation. Data analytics will provide deep insights into learner behaviors, feeding learning design. Virtual and augmented reality will enhance connectivity between student and teacher and between students.

The economic downturn in Post-Cv will create strains on most organizations. The layoffs and downsizing experienced during the virus period will not be reversed in the short to medium term. This will encourage organizations to outsource as they seek to lean structures. OPM-type relationships based on revenue share models will be increasingly deployed, in which organizations forgo revenue in order to keep operational expenses and upfront investment down. From a Faculty and teaching perspective, full-time tenure track hiring will decrease and focus on more popular subject areas andschools will increase their use of part-time and adjunct faculty. At the same time, universities will rationalize resources by eliminating or consolidating institutes and research centers which are deemed less strategic or which provide less direct return. Some business units, like business-school executive education, will be spun off in search of new revenue models. Similarly, certain labs will become quasi-independent commercial entities.

With an increase in travel restrictions, the new normal will be much less about physical presence. The flow of people, goods and services has been increasingly hampered during the last few years with the rise of nationalism and trade conflict. The US, once the prime destination for overseas students, has slipped over concerns of safety and stricter visa policy. A universal reaction to COVID-19 has been the imposition of travel restrictions and, in some cases, complete closing of borders. It will be unlikely that we will return to post-crisis status quo as many countries will take advantage of precedent to continue to restrict inbound flows.Online learning has a much larger presence, and virtual meetings and conferences have created alternatives for physical events. This also applies to student mobility, with traditional study abroad programs reducing their scope. On the other hand, virtual classrooms and global collaborative programs will be greatly increased in order to connect students through technology.

The global economic downturn means that students will be much more concerned about opportunity cost of study and have high expectations about career opportunities and development. Part-time programs will the format of choice for graduate students who are employed, as they will not like to risk their current income. Those who are currently unemployed will favor full-time programs as they wait out the storm, but only if there are attractive financing options. Student debt is not an option. Internship programs will be very attractive for full-time programs across all subject areas, and undergraduates will favor programs that have strong co-op elements to boost employment opportunities. Similarly, action learning will become a core element of most programs. While the learner wants flexibility in studies, they will also value institutions that commit to them over the long-term. The importance of career progression and preparation to weather crisis is clear, so career services must cater to long-term development and access to services. A subscription-type model will be very attractive, though students and graduates will be hesitant to pay fees for such access.

Given travel restrictions and uncertainties, students will favor staying closer to home if they have viable options for study.Geographic preferences for those who will study overseas will shift, given not only travel and visa restrictions but also perceptions of how governments dealt with the crisis. China comes out a winner for its efficiency and ability to act in a concerted manner. The US loses for its lack of leadership and inability to handle public health, as well as its more restrictive immigration context.

Because of the new economic situation, learners will be more price sensitive and want varied and flexible payment options. ISAs (Income Share Agreements) will expand, and new tuition models will appear. Students do not want to be tied down and favor flexible learning formats that cater to their needs and schedules. Being able to start courses at different times of the year, and to drop in and out of their studies will be highly valued, as will being able to change from full-time to part-time to online. Flexibility will also be demanded in the admissions process. The precedent of dropping standardized tests during the crises will reset student expectations and provide the opportunity for universities to wean off a system that was already falling from favor in many circles.

In China, while digital learning has gained traction in the MOOC space, it is far less developed in degree programs relative to other markets. During the COVID-19 crisis most universities ensured continuity of study by moving to digital delivery, which drove institutions to rapidly expand their digital capabilities. Zhejiang University, with almost 60,000 students in 37 schools, moved quickly toopen its Spring 2020 semester 100% virtual, giving an enormous boost to its online learning platform. The need for online has become clear as a means respond to crises and provide flexibility, and will be the largest area of change for China, as its developmentcontinues Post-Cv. The unknown however is how (or how quickly) the Ministry of Education will adapt its regulatory framework in order to facilitate credit-bearing online learning and fully online degree programs.

Given the new normal intravel and visa restrictions, Chinese learners will increasingly seek to stay in China for their studies. This means the demand for international perspective and foreign collaborative programs in China will increase. The ability to partner and provide global learning opportunities in domestic programs will be a differentiator and value driver. Digital collaboration will also present opportunities for learners in China.

Looking more specifically at management education and business schools, portfolios, including degree, open enrollment and custom programs will go largely digital for all audience levels and program types. From middle management to executive programs, strong online components will be expected to deliver both impact and cost savings. Schools  who can rapidly deploy digital solutions will have an advantage. Budget limitations and market demands will exert pressure on prices, so programs should look to scale online if  their brands do not allow for premium positioning.

Corporate clients will expect programs to show direct, measurable impact and returns for their training dollars. Schools should expect to demonstrate quantifiable returns to learners and corporate clients.Action learning projects can reinforce the impact of the learning and help ensure measurable ROI of corporate learning programs and will be prominent program features. Similarly, this is the moment to experiment with results-based revenue models, forcing business schools to assume part of the risk in corporate learning programs.

With cuts to budget and resources, business schools will focus more on networks of Faculty than exclusively in-house Faculty and look towards partnership and joint programs to identify economies of scale and market efficiencies. This includes digital collaboration.Networks of partners and providers should be global and provide the ability to helicopter in when it makes sense, but without a deep physical presence. Revenue share models provide agility and expertise with lower fixed cost and in-house resource requirements and will be expanded upon. For university-based business schools, it is a relevant time to consider spinning off executive education in order to facilitate partnership and increase market reactivity.

The new normalin higher education for Post-Cv is digital. This is true for both the wider university and specifically for management education, both globally and in China. In a new normal characterized by restricted mobility and financial constraints, institutionswill gear up to expand capabilities to serve new learner demands. New technologies will continue to enhance the digital learning experience as adoption accelerates. Flexibility for learners, overcoming financial constraints and demonstrating impact in learning are fundamental for all institutions. None of these imperatives are new as they represent trends identified over the last several years—online learning has been with us for more than 10 years. However, the speed at which institutions will be required to adjust and adapt will make a big difference in their long-term viability.