Speaker: Katia Chirkova, researcher, Institute of East Asian Languages, French Academy of Social Sciences, French National Research CenterVenue: Tencent meeting, meeting ID: 836 361 030

Speaker: Rajneesh Narula, John H. Dunning Chair in International Business Henley Business School, Reading UniversityVenue: Zoom（ID：980 5778 6886，Password：466696）Abstract:While COVID-19 has caused significant short-term disruptions in global value chains (GVCs), in the longer run, the pandemic will not be the primary catalyst in GVC evolution. As GVCs recover from the initial shock, managers will make GVC restructuring decisions guided by long-term strategic considerations. We describe barriers that lead firm managers may encounter when rethinking location/control decisions for value chain activities and suggest that, in addition to structural changes, managerial governance adaptations are instrumental in enhancing GVCs’ long-term resilience. Lessons learned from responding to the pandemic can help managers enhance GVC efficiency in the increasingly uncertain global environment.

Speaker: ZHU Fukang, Professor, School of Mathematics, Jilin UniversityVenue: Tencent meeting ID: 788 902 078Abstract:During the last decades, a large variety of models have been proposed for count time series, where the integer-valued autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) models are the most popular ones. However, while both models lead to an ARMA-like autocorrelation function (ACF), the attainable range of ACF values is much more restricted and negative ACF values are usually not possible. The existing log-linear INGARCH model allows for negative ACF values, but the linear conditional mean and the ARMA-like autocorrelation structure are lost. To resolve this dilemma, a novel family of INGARCH models is proposed, which uses the softplus function as a response function. The softplus function behaves approximately linear, but avoids the drawback of not being differentiable in zero. Stochastic properties of the novel model are derived. The proposed model indeed exhibits an approximately linear structure, which is confirmed by extensive simulations, and which makes its model parameters easier to interpret than those of a log-linear INGARCH model. The asymptotics of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters are established, and their finite-sample performance is analyzed via simulations. The usefulness of the proposed model is demonstrated by applying it to three real-data examples.

Speaker: LI Ke, Professor, Harbin Institue of TechnologyVenue: Tencent meeting ID: 873 875 203Abstract:The reliability function, introduced by Shannon in information theory, characterizes the exact exponent under which the error probability of an information processing task approaches zero exponentially. There is little complete result about the reliability function in quantum information. In this talk, I will introduce part of the history and background of this problem, and then I will report our quite recent results on the reliability functions of two quantum information tasks: 1) quantum privacy amplification, and 2) quantum information decoupling. The results are given in terms of a type of information divergence---the Sandwiched Rényi Information Divergence.

Speaker: HAN Pengfei, Assistant Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking UniversityTecent Meeting ID: 802 240 481Abstract:We develop measures for technology decoupling and dependence between the U.S. and China based on combined patent data. The first two decades of the century witnessed a steady increase in technology integration (or less decoupling), but China’s dependence on the U.S. increased (decreased) during the first (second) decade. Decoupling in a technology field predicts China’s growing dependence on U.S. technology, which, in turn, predicts less decoupling further down the road. Decoupling is associated with more patent outputs in China, but lower firm productivity and valuation. China’s innovation-oriented industrial policies trade off the inherent conflict between indigenous innovation and firm competitiveness.

Speaker: LU Jiaqi, Assistant Professor, School of Data Science and the School of Management and Economics, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, ShenzhenVenue: Tencent meeting, meeting ID: 604 517 397Abstract:We study a dual sourcing problem in an increasingly volatile world. We consider two types of volatilities. The first type models fluctuating economic conditions via an underlying Markov- modulated state-of-the-world which affects the two suppliers’ cost structures, capacity limits and demands. The other type of volatility affects the actual outputs resulting from random supply processes. We show how the optimal combined ordering strategy from the two suppliers, along with a salvaging policy, can be efficiently computed, and characterize the relatively simple structure of the optimal policies. We also present various comparison results of the expected total costs under different environments. We find that the firm can, by exploiting the dual sourcing options, benefit from environmental volatilities that affect the suppliers’ cost structures or capacity limits; indeed, benefits increase as volatilities increase in specific ways. Numerical studies illustrate these results and reject other reasonable conjectures.

Speaker: Vinod Singhal, Professor, Coordinator for MS with a Major in Management, Georgia Institute of TechnologyVenue: ZOOM, ID: 935 6048 9231, code: 375983Abstract:In this talk, Professor Vinod Singhal will share his study on the empirical evidence on the effect of the September 2015 Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal on the stock prices of publicly traded firms in the global automotive ecosystem. Focus on the supply chain partners, business customers of VW, and other manufacturers not identified as VW suppliers; and wholesalers, retailers, and rental agencies not identified as VW customers. They find that tier-1 suppliers of direct material to VW suffered a negative stock price reaction, but this effect varied by region. European suppliers were the most impacted with a mean stock price reaction of ‒5.52%. Suppliers with larger revenue dependence on VW experienced greater negative stock price reactions, as did suppliers of components for engines and/or emissions systems. Non-VW parts manufacturers experienced a positive effect. We find a mean stock price reaction of ─5.28% to VW’s European customers, but no significant effects for non-VW customers. European motor vehicle manufacturers experienced a mean stock price reaction of ‒7.60%. Their work has implications for industry groups, regulators, and legal systems, entities that have the resources and capabilities to effectively monitor large firms to reduce illegal or irresponsible behavior such as the VW scandal.

Speaker: ZHAO Jing, Associate professor, Department of Marketing and Tourism Management, Wuhan UniversityVenue: Tencent meeting, meeting ID: 718 895 601(Please remark your name as name-school)Abstract:This paper studies how FDI inflows fluctuate when the host country is hit by epidemic outbreak. Based on uncertainty theory, we propose S-shaped FDI fluctuations during and after the outbreak. By analyzing historical outbreak and bilateral FDI data from 2001 to 2012, we find FDI inflows during an outbreak are 20.8% below the pre-outbreak average, and FDI inflows after the end of an outbreak are 20.1% above the pre-outbreak average within three years, which highlights the compensatory FDI after the end of epidemic and thereby confirms the S-shaped fluctuation. Furthermore, by studying the industry-level heterogeneity, we first confirm the validity of the uncertainty mechanism converting the health shock into risk factors in the real economy; secondly we find the medical conditions and institutional quality may influence the effect of epidemic on FDI inflows, in the sense that countries with poor medical conditions suffer greater decreases in FDI inflows during outbreaks, and countries characterized by poorer institutional quality do not experience compensatory FDI after an outbreak ends.