Partition, Power Sharing and Peace: A Spatial Analysis

Presenter: Lars-Erik Cederman (member of the German National Academy of Sciences)

Discussant: Prof. Kurtuluş Gemici, Prof. Andre Python

Venue: Room 1127, Block A, Creative Building, West Zone, Zijingang Campus

Abstract:

Does the partitioning of states along ethnic lines reduce conflict? While theorists drawing on the “security dilemma” argue that partition prevents conflict recurrence by separating the parties, others dispute these findings. Advancing in four analytical steps, this work first reconceptualize partition as decreased cohabitation in dyads between transnationally defined ethnic groups. Based on a global dataset (1945-2017), we find that whereas complete partition reduces internal conflict, its incomplete application increases this risk. The second step adopts a nationalist logic and tests whether partition reduces conflict if it eliminates dyadic domination. Third, the analysis focuses on whether reduced domination makes civil conflict less likely, with or without border change. We show that power sharing can be at least as effective in reducing domination as partition. The fourth and final step investigates the various side effects of state splits on both civil and interstate conflict. Generally, we find that partition may fuel instability both within and outside the dyad.